In case you’ve been living in a hole the last several months, you’ve no doubt read about (or maybe even experienced) the growing “crime problem” in the city of Atlanta.  And within just the last few days, you’ve probably seen the annual report issued by the FBI – and trumpeted by the Atlanta sheriff’s office – that pours cold water on those concerns.  The statistics show that crime is down. 

So what’s going on?

In the case of these recent numbers (e.g. the “year over year” variety), Jim Walls has an insightful analysis that shows exactly where pockets of crime are up in certain policed “zones” of the city.  The conclusion is that while the rates of crime are down across Atlanta as a whole, localized pockets of crime are up (and in some cases dramatically so).  The perception and reality of rising crime are real in these areas of the city.

But we shouldn’t let today’s highly politicized environment obscure the broader view of crime in Atlanta.  The fact is that the Atlanta has seen incredible gains over the last decade in reducing crime.  If you trend the numbers reported by the FBI back to the year 2000, the city has accomplished something truly wonderful.  While the population of Atlanta has grown by 20% over 8 years, violent crime has decreased by 36%.  Property crime has fallen by 11% in the same time period (although it does show some troubling signs of a rebound).

(Atl crime stats 2000-2008)

It’s a good story that seems to be lost in the current narrative.  While it’s easy to proclaim that the “city to busy to hate” is in jeopardy, a longer range look tells the opposite story.

Violent Crime Trends

(Atl Property Crime Trends)

I’m not trying to minimize the power that crime has on a community.  Nor am I trying to de-legitimize any particular tragic event.   During the mid-90’s, I spent my time living in uptown and downtown New Orleans.  I was mugged twice, once at gun point, and understand very acutely the tension many people feel in Atlanta today.  When something happens in your neighborhood, you could care less if the “statistics” say something different.  If you are the victim of a violent crime, your personal “crime rate” is up 100%.  Experiences matter.  I get that.

But let’s not lose site of the forest through the trees.  If we need to take tactical measures to better protect particular communities that are stressed, well, let’s do that.  Hire some cops, extend community policing, invest and empower.  I’m all about that. 

It’s also time to acknowledge that real shifts are occurring that drive crime rates in ways we have less direct control over.  We live in a “surveillance era” where we are captured on camera just about everywhere we go in public.  We carry less cash because of ATM machine.  More than ever, we live in a consumption/service economy where cheaper goods reduce the incentive to steal.  For a lot of people, the concern over losing your “identity” to an African email fraudster has replaced the fear of getting mugged.  While we are on the subject, we should add these issues to the discussion as well.